tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-44816951273451014012023-11-16T18:18:30.202+01:00POTUSPHERE, An Observatory of US PoliticsBlog Content ArchivesAmy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comBlogger127125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-5401052752223869142016-03-02T23:41:00.000+01:002020-10-25T09:43:15.440+01:00CAPITAL BRIEF : AFTER SUPER TUESDAY, CLINTON VS TRUMP?<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><u><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">Capital Brief, 2 March 2016</span></u></b></div>
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<b><u><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">After Super Tuesday: Clinton vs. Trump?</span></u></b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">FACTS:</b></div>
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<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">On Tuesday, March 1, </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">about a dozen states and territories voted in both Democratic and
Republican primary races </b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">(incl. Texas, Georgia, Virginia, Minnesota, and
Massechusetts).</span></li>
<li><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Hillary
Clinton won big </b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">on the Democratic side, amassing victories in Alabama,
Georgia, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia among others.</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Bernie Sanders took a handful of states – Colorado,
Minnesota, Oklahoma, and Vermont.</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">On the left, the overall delegate count stands
at </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Clinton (595) vs. Sanders (405).</b></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">For the Republican contest, </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Donald Trump emerged as the decisive victor</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">, taking wins in Alabama,
Alaska, Georgia, Massachusetts, Vermont, Virginia, among others.</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Ted Cruz won his home state Texas, Oklahoma, and
Alaska. Rubio’s sole victory, Minnesota.</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">On the right, </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Trump stands firmly in first place with 319 delegates, followed by Cruz
at 226, and Rubio with just 110.</b></li>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">ANALYSIS:</b></div>
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<ul>
<li><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Clinton’s
victories on Super Tuesday reinforce the argument of widespread electability</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">,
at least among voters on the left. She won handily and did so in particular by
amassing </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">coalitions of minority voters. The so-called "Obama Coalition" is firmly in the Clinton camp, even if Sanders remains strong among young voters.</b></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Despite momentum in the early voting states,
Sanders’ few wins on Tuesday reinforce the argument that </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">he is unable to build a coalition beyond isolated demographics </b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">(white,
educated, upper middle class liberals and young people). Even Massachusetts – bordering
his home state of Vermont, where Sanders was hoping to claim an important
victory – swung for Clinton.</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Following Super Tuesday, </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Donald Trump seems unstoppable as the Republican frontrunner</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. At
this point, he has a healthy lead in the delegate count. He has proven able to
turn out his supporters, not “reliable” voters, in all regions of the country
and in states of varying demographics, sizes, voting histories. Super Tuesday
proved that </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">recent attacks </b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">on Trump,
namely by Rubio, </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">did nothing to dampen
his stronghold over conservative voters</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">.</span></li>
<li><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Trump
benefits from the splintering of the rest of the Republican field</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. Smaller
candidates like Kasich and Carson have no reason to remain in the race at this
stage. And After Tuesday, Cruz – firmly in second place – has no reason to quit
now.</span></li>
<li><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">A path to
victory for Rubio looks unclear</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. A win in Florida, his home state, would be
important (a loss would be even more consequential), but he needs a string of
victories to make the case that he can win all over the country in a variety of
states and across the courants battling within the Party. In essence, </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">he needs to demonstrate that he can do what
Trump has already done</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">.</span></li>
<li><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">The
Establishment backs Rubio, but so far voters are unwilling to lend him the same
support as the Party machinery</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. Unless Rubio wins big in the coming weeks,
his best hope for securing the nomination may be to </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">prevent Trump from winning the necessary number of delegates and going
to a contested convention this summer</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. This strategy is dangerous and would
underscore the reasons why primary voters so strongly rebuke the Establishment
and what they see as elite, insular practices that ignore the will of
rank-and-file conservative voters.</span></li>
</ul>
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Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-30961474128797304452016-02-24T22:00:00.002+01:002020-10-25T09:43:15.709+01:00CAPITAL BRIEF : CLINTON REMAINS STRONG, TRUMP GAINS BIG<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><u><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">Capital Brief, 24 February 2016</span></u></b><br />
<b><u><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;">Clinton Position Remains Strong, Trump Gains Big</span></u></b><span style="color: black; mso-ascii-font-family: Cambria; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-hansi-font-family: Cambria;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">FACTS:</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
</div>
<ul>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">On Saturday, February 20</span><sup style="text-indent: -0.25in;">th</sup><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">,
Democratic and Republican voters turned out to vote in two different contests –
Nevada for the Democrats and South Carolina for the Republicans.</span></li>
<li><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Hillary
Clinton claimed a sound victory in Nevada</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> at 52.6% against Bernie Sanders’
47.3%.</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">On February 20</span><sup style="text-indent: -0.25in;">th</sup><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">, </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Donald Trump won South Carolina</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">
(32.5%), then Marco Rubio in second (22.5%) and Cruz (22.3%). Then Jeb Bush,
John Kasich, and Ben Carson each took about 7-8%.</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">As a result </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Jeb
Bush suspended his campaign</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">, ending his bid for the presidency.</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">On February 23</span><sup style="text-indent: -0.25in;">rd</sup><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">, </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Donald Trump won Nevada handily</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> with
45.9%, Rubio placed second with 23.9%, followed closely by Cruz (21.4%), Carson
(4.8%), and Kasich (3.8%).</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">In the wake of these two races, candidates have
turned their attention to the next primaries: Saturday, </span><u style="text-indent: -0.25in;">February 27<sup>th</sup>
in South Carolina for the Democrats</u><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> followed by </span><u style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Super Tuesday (March 1<sup>st</sup>)</u><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">,
and Super Tuesday for the Republicans. On March 1</span><sup style="text-indent: -0.25in;">st</sup><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">, about a dozen
states vote.</span></li>
</ul>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">ANALYSIS:</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
</div>
<ul>
<li><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Clinton’s
victory was expected and uncontested in its importance</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. The margin of
victory seems to have no consequence on the electoral dynamic in the Democratic
race.</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">During the past several weeks, </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Clinton has been campaigning intensively on
questions of racial discrimination</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. She has evoked white privilege - a
concept that has rarely been spoken of at this level of politics –, honed in on
institutionalized racism and espoused the Black Lives Matter movement. She has
sought and won the endorsements of a number of very famous Black public figures
and released ads touting her history of combatting discrimination. Clinton seems
to have understood the </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">crucial
importance of Black voters to her White House bid</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. More immediately, she is
</span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">looking to ensure a convincing victory
in South Carolina, the site of her worst defeat in 2008 </b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">and a place where
there were accusations of coded racism on the part of her husband while
campaigning on her behalf.</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Many </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Super
Tuesday states are very friendly for Clinton</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. It is possible that after the
last counts of Tuesday’s votes, the path to the nomination may look much
clearer for Clinton, but given the climate of resentment of “Establishment”
candidates, Sanders still may surprise.</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">The real shifts are occurring on the Right. </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Trump</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">’s solid win in Nevada (his third
consecutive) makes him </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">look increasingly
stronger as a candidate</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> – especially given that his popularity increases as
his rhetoric toughens.</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">The smaller candidates (</span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Kasich, Carson</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">) will stay in the race through Super Tuesday, but
absent any major surprise, they are both unlikely to claim any victories giving
them a reason to stay in the race after Wednesday. Their </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">continued presence seems more effective in steering votes away from
Rubio.</b></li>
<li><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Rubio
continues to argue that he is a credible alternative to Trump </b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">capable of
winning a general election against Clinton. </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Unlike the Party Establishment, voters seem to disagree so far.</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> With
only second and third place finishes, Rubio will need to do very well on
Tuesday in order to </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">prove that he is
capable of winning <i>something</i></b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">.
Routinely claiming victory from third position begins to look less convincing
as the race wears on. But support from Kasich and Carson voters could certainly
help boost his chances, if they pull out.</span></li>
<li><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Ted
Cruz’s presence in the race is an element of further division.</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> An ultraconservative
candidate, he lacks the support of many conservative groups that back Trump.
Given the bitter rivalry between the two, it is unlikely that a considerable
part of that support will defect to Cruz. </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">And
the Establishment, behind Rubio at this point, finds Cruz even less palatable
than Trump</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. Apart from an Iowa victory, he has not topped third place.
Super Tuesday will help to better assess where both Cruz and Rubio stand.</span></li>
<li><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">What
remains clear is that the remaining Republican candidates will likely need to
unite around one person among them as an alternative to Trump’s gaining
momentum.</b></li>
</ul>
Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-72422878409364400372016-02-03T22:47:00.000+01:002020-10-25T09:43:15.932+01:00CAPITAL BRIEF : CLINTON, CRUZ TAKE IOWA, DYNAMICS SHIFTING<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>Capital Brief, 3 February 2016</u></b></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>Voting Begins: Clinton, Cruz Take Iowa and Election Dynamics Shift<o:p></o:p></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">FACTS:</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
</div>
<ul>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">On February 1, the first electoral event of the
2016 season took place with the Iowa caucuses.</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders were
predicted to finish in a virtual tie with the advantage given to Clinton. This
indeed proved to be the case. </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Clinton
won in a razor sharp victory</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">, receiving </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">49.9% of the total vote</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> (versus Sanders’ 49.6%). Voter turnout was
particularly high, second only to the record-breaking 2008 (the year Obama won,
and Hillary Clinton placed third). Following the Iowa caucus in which he
received less than 1% of the vote, former Maryland governor </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Martin O’Malley suspended his campaign</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">.</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">On the Republican side, Donald Trump and Ted
Cruz also went into the caucus in a virtual tie, with pollsters predicting a
Trump victory. </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Ted Cruz surprised by winning
with 27.6%</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> of the vote, leaving Donald Trump with 24.3%, and Marco Rubio in
third with 23.1%. No Republican candidate has pulled out of the race since the
results on Monday.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">ANALYSIS:</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">
</div>
<ul>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">On the left, </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Clinton’s victory could be considered a mixed result</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. She won,
after all, in a state in which a quarter of Democrats identify themselves, like
Sanders, as socialists. She won in a state traditionally difficult for the
Clintons, thus becoming the first Clinton – and especially </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">the first woman in history – to win this caucus</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">.</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Yet, Clinton invested heavily (money, staff, personal visits) over the past several months in an effort to
win Iowa convincingly. Her Iowa infrastructure was better than Obama’s mythic
operation in 2008. The narrowness of her victory may underline a lingering
voter sentiment that the problem lies not in Clinton’s operational and tactical
game, but resides rather in her person. If this argument holds true, it is perhaps
most true for many </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">young first-time
voters, who turned out overwhelmingly to support Sanders </b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">(80% of voters
under 30 cast ballots for him).</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">On the right, </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Iowa was an important loss for Donald Trump</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. Indeed Iowa voters
showed that for as much as Trump’s anger discourse may have resonated and
captured the public and media imaginations, ultimately: </span><u style="text-indent: -0.25in;">1/ his proponents’
fervor did not translate into mobilization around Trump in this key electoral moment</u><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">,
</span><u style="text-indent: -0.25in;">2/ temperament and policy mattered more to the base’s conservative
voters than mere indignation </u><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">and finally, 3/ </span><u style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Cruz’s grassroots operation
outperformed </u><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Trump’s nontraditionally organized campaign effort.</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">The
Republican Establishment has been eager to separate itself from Trump and Cruz</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">.
Trump’s defeat in Iowa was a first small step to achieving that objective. <b>Cruz's v</b></span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">ictory was good for Cruz, but perhaps even
better for Rubio</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. As the race moves forward, there will be a </span><u style="text-indent: -0.25in;">growing
pressure on smaller candidates to rally their supporters and donors around a single electable Republican candidate</u><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. </span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Jeb
Bush</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> was once considered the natural Establishment choice, but has proven to be a </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">weak candidate</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">
with a diminishing momentum. </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">If
bolstered by a strong showing in the next voting states, Rubio’s solid performance in Iowa (23.1%) makes a convincing argument that he could/should be
the Establishment heir</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">, providing a moderate, electable alternative to Ted
Cruz and thus a chance at beating likely Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton.</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">The
overall electoral mood in 2016 is different than that of 2008</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. In 2016, 50%
of Democratic voters say that experience is very important to them, whereas
only 29% of Republicans agree. The opposite was true in 2008 - the last time
Hillary Clinton ran - when Democratic voters felt that experience was secondary
to judgment and temperament and nominated Obama. </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Conversely, Republicans wanted experience
first and foremost and</span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">nominated Senator
John McCain.</span></li>
</ul>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
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Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-59836084454397518122016-01-20T12:31:00.004+01:002020-10-25T09:43:16.137+01:00CAPITAL BRIEF IS BACK IN TIME FOR THE 2016 ELECTION SEASON<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
Capital Brief is back!</div>
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In the lead-up to the 2012 election, I published a one-page weekly analysis of presidential election dynamics, taking the most noteworthy evolutions of the previous week and presenting them accompanied by a concise analysis.</div>
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After the jump, read the inaugural Capital Brief of the 2016 election season, this edition focused on the GOP and Democratic debates and their aftermath.</div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>CAPITAL BRIEF, 20 January 2016</u></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>Republican, Democratic Debates Reinforce Dynamics Without Altering
Them<o:p></o:p></u></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">FACTS:</b></div>
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<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">The sixth Republican debate (Jan 12) witnessed </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">end of entente between Donald Trump and Ted
Cruz</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">, with sharp attacks exchanged and Trump calling into question Cruz’s
citizenship and eligibility to run. When pressed, Trump admitted to doing this
(as previously with Obama) because of recent Cruz gains in the polls. The
debate evoked a wide range of topics: economy, military intervention, refugees,...</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">The debate </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">confirmed
a two-tier race - led by Trump and Cruz -</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> followed by a cluster of viable,
yet less popular candidates (Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, John Kasich). Despite
predictions that the nomination was inevitable for </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Jeb Bush</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">, he has had </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">difficulty
emerging from the media shadow</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> created by Trump and gaining ground in a </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">race increasingly defined by anger</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">.
Observers question how long Bush’s candidacy can hold, but his money and infrastructure
should help him stay long enough to have a chance at winning the nomination.</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Then on Jan 17, the three Democratic candidates
debated in South Carolina, with the </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">focus
mainly on Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. Pressure was high on both
sides as recent </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">polling data showing
Sanders gaining on, and even beating, Clinton</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> in early voting states (Iowa
and New Hampshire).</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Clinton
linked herself to Obama’s policies </b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">relentlessly, calculating that the
president is very popular among Democrats and African American voters (dominant
group of S. Carolina voters, where debate was held). She made the case of being
the </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">natural heir to Bill Clinton and
Obama legacies</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> while signaling Sanders’ policy shifts (namely on health
care and gun control). Her goal was two-fold: </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">1- place political distance between Sanders and Obama</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> and </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">2-</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">chip
away at image of Sanders as a genuine outsider</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">, to paint him as a
politician like any other.</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Sanders
attacked Clinton most fervently on her finances</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">, questioning her commitment
to the middle class while also accepting speaking fees of $600K in one year
from Goldman Sachs. He argued that she is </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">cozy
with moneyed interests</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> (Wall St.), far from the average American.</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Overall, both </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Democratic candidates doubled down on traditional attacks</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">against their opponent</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">: Clinton as
untrustworthy and inauthentic, Sanders as a fringe candidate with neither
viable policy ideas nor the ability to assemble a winning coalition.</span></li>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">ANALYSIS:</b></div>
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<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">On the left, </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Clinton comfortably retains her national frontrunner status</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> despite
polling data in the early states. She is still </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">poised to win the Obama victory coalition</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> (minorities, women,
youth) and campaigns aggressively to ensure this. She has </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">considerable money, organization, and infrastructure</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Sanders seems far from being an existential</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">
</span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">threat</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> to Clinton’s path to the
Democratic nomination. His </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">marginal appeal
is a fundamental limit</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">, yet the extent of his power to cause Clinton
problems, especially early on, remains to be seen.</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">On the right, </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Trump is the frontrunner, with caveats</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">. His support remains
limited: only 30% of Republican voters claim to have chosen a candidate, and less
than 30% of that minority support Trump. Most pundits agree that a </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">clear frontrunner will not emerge before
April</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">.</span></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Will groups
that comprise Trump’s base, invigorated by his outrage and bellicose rhetoric, formalize
their support and mobilize to vote?</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> Once voting begins, </span><u style="text-indent: -0.25in;">as moderates turn
out and voters demand policy content, a Presidential temperament, and a viable
candidate against the Democrats, will Trump be able to pass beyond bluster and
impossible ideas (ex. banning all Muslims, requiring Apple to produce all
products in the US)</u><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">? </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">Other
candidates</b><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;"> (Bush, Kasich, Rubio) </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">would
have the chance to make their case as electable, policy-oriented alternatives
to Trump.</b></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-indent: -0.25in;">In a climate of domestic economic precariousness,
complex global instability, and the question of the US’ place in the world, it
is useful to recall the </span><b style="text-indent: -0.25in;">electoral
tradition: the American people tend to vote ultimately for a president based
not on doomsday proposals rooted in isolation and pessimism, but rather on construction
and optimism.</b></li>
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Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-15383968408125706282016-01-17T11:57:00.000+01:002020-10-25T09:43:16.334+01:00EUROPE1 INTERVIEW ON OBAMA'S STATE OF THE UNION, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONSLast weekend, I was a guest of David Abiker on Europe1 (C'est arrivé cette semaine) to talk briefly about Obama's last State of the Union address, his potential impact on the 2016 presidential contest, the place of Donald Trump in the Republican race, and the heated battle between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in the early primaries.<br />
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Listen to the full interview (French) at the link below, starting at the 9'30" mark.<br />
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<a href="http://www.europe1.fr/emissions/c-est-arrive-cette-semaine/cest-arrive-cette-semaine-160116-2651547" target="_blank">C'est arrivé cette semaine (16 Jan 2016)</a><br />
<br />Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-37171171143340222792016-01-06T11:51:00.000+01:002020-10-25T09:43:16.544+01:00FRANCE24 DEBATE ON OBAMA EXECUTIVE ORDERS ON GUN CONTROLRecently, I had the honor of participating in France24's Debate (English), moderated by François Picard, on the topic of Obama's executive orders on gun control.<br />
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See the full video after the jump.<br />
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<a name='more'></a><br />
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Part I:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="270" src="//www.dailymotion.com/embed/video/x3kwty1" width="480"></iframe><br />
<a href="http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3kwty1_obama-s-weapon-of-choice-gun-control-by-executive-order_news" target="_blank">Obama's weapon of choice: Gun control by...</a> <i>par <a href="http://www.dailymotion.com/france24english" target="_blank">france24english</a></i><br />
<br />
Part II:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="270" src="//www.dailymotion.com/embed/video/x3kww85" width="480"></iframe><br />
<a href="http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3kww85_obama-s-weapon-of-choice-gun-control-by-executive-order-part-two_news" target="_blank">Obama's weapon of choice: Gun control by...</a> <i>par <a href="http://www.dailymotion.com/france24english" target="_blank">france24english</a></i><br />
<br />Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-22914434387408473532015-07-23T08:43:00.003+02:002020-10-25T09:43:16.769+01:00AMERICA TESTED BY THE RISE OF FOREIGN NATIONALISMS (ENA HORS LES MURS)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyA60xB75o1qV-apWI_g-kPqUQR2U3hRpuIEFV6e7YCgGEziaL8b9JjaeEm7yOrglfyV_NS6qzV942PsjGaAOUnQFqOSVZdewMUStjoXc9mHKyMxw4C3aE9VOK0Tv0nnbB1HC5bIBB0g5X/s1600/ENA_Page_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyA60xB75o1qV-apWI_g-kPqUQR2U3hRpuIEFV6e7YCgGEziaL8b9JjaeEm7yOrglfyV_NS6qzV942PsjGaAOUnQFqOSVZdewMUStjoXc9mHKyMxw4C3aE9VOK0Tv0nnbB1HC5bIBB0g5X/s320/ENA_Page_1.jpg" width="245" /></a></div>
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My recent article, "America Tested by the Rise Foreign Nationalisms," was published in the April 2015 edition of <i>ENA Hors les Murs</i>.<br />
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The article takes a look at US foreign policy, and Washington's posture abroad, when confronted by the <b>rise of nationalisms around the globe</b> - looking especially at the cases of its <b>sole peer competitor (China)</b>, <b>historical allies (Japan, Israel)</b>, and <b>potential strategic partners (India, Russia) </b>- and the <b>particular challenges each poses to US interests</b>.</div>
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The consequences, posited in this article, demand a reflection on the <b>US' role and means</b> in <b>defending and projecting its influence</b> amid shifting balances in a <b>world dissatisfied with the consequences of globalization</b>, as evidenced by the <b>rëemergence of powerful "domestic fronts."</b></div>
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The full article (in French) after the jump.</div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">L’Amérique à l’épreuve des nationalismes
étrangers</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: MetaPlusBook-Roman; font-size: 8pt;">avril 2015 / </span><span style="font-family: MetaPlusBook-Roman; font-size: 8pt;">n°450</span></div>
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L’Amérique d’aujourd’hui
est confrontée à une vague de nationalismes qui touche différentes régions du
globe. Son <i>peer competitor</i> chinois,
ses partenaires stratégiques potentiels autrefois courtisés (l’Inde, la Russie), ses alliés historiques
(Japon, Israël) posent problème, et les dirigeants américains suscitent, par
leurs attitudes respectives, des débats complexes dans lesquels Washington n’a plus
toujours le même contrôle que jadis. Dès lors, la capacité d’influer sur les
réalités devient un critère d’évaluation de la politique étrangère de Barack
Obama, tant pour ses opposants que pour ses supporters. Surtout, cette montée
des nationalismes met en question le rapport de l’Amérique à l’altérité, que
cet « Autre » soit considéré comme ennemi, comme partenaire, ou comme
Etat clef à influencer.</div>
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<b><span style="color: #657f2d; font-family: NewsGothicBT-Bold, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">La menace chinoise<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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En premier
lieu la Chine, désormais principal <i>peer
competitor</i> des Etats-Unis dans le monde, entretient un discours ferme, de
plus en plus nationaliste. En décembre 2014, le président Obama a critiqué le
président chinois Xi Jinping pour la marche forcée de sa consolidation de pouvoir,
tout en critiquant son discours nationaliste sur les revendications
territoriales et maritimes (notamment en Mer de chine du Sud) , le tout, de
surcroît, sur une toile de fond domestique de harcèlement de la dissidence, d’hostilité
à la liberté de l’Internet et de durcissement sur les droits de l’homme. Malgré
les espoirs sans doute excessifs qu’aurait pu entretenir l’Occident lors de
l’arrivée au pouvoir du président Xi (réformes domestiques, discours responsable
sur rôle de la Chine sur la scène internationale), le « rêve
chinois » risque de se transformer en posture belliqueuse. Bien que
l’accent soit sans doute mis sur la croissance économique et le développement, la
possibilité d’un discours anti-occidental (Xi a déjà fait évoquer négativement « les
méthodes occidentales ») renforcé par une augmentation des capacités militaires,
est envisagée. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Henry
Kissinger a longtemps souligné que Chinois et Américains n’avaient aucun intérêt
stratégique à une confrontation bilatérale, et devaient choisir la coopération.
<span style="text-transform: uppercase;">a</span>ujourd’hui la Chine détient
environ un cinquième de la dette américaine, ce qui renforce encore cette
interdépendance. Mais la ferveur nationaliste observable à Pékin risque d’éclipser
ces considérations libérales, tandis que Pékin se sent plus libre de marquer sa
distance avec Washington sur d’autres enjeux internationaux importants. Si
quelques acteurs importants comme Hillary Clinton prônent encore l’approfondissement
du dialogue, le nationalisme chinois suscite une riposte nationaliste aux Etats-Unis,
qui insiste sur la menace potentielle ainsi faite à la prééminence politique américaine,
à son industrie de manufacture, à ses valeurs démocratiques libérales, et les
dangers qui pèsent sur ses alliés asiatiques. Ce sentiment de menace n’est pas,
pour l’heure, partagé par l’opinion publique américaine, mais le discours
stratégique des « faucons »
sur la Chine pourrait se transformer en rhétorique interne de suspicion et
de protectionnisme à la veille des échéances électorales.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b><span style="color: #657f2d; font-family: NewsGothicBT-Bold, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Échec du </span></b><b><i><span style="color: #657f2d; font-family: NewsGothicBT-BoldItalic, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">reset </span></i></b><b><span style="color: #657f2d; font-family: NewsGothicBT-Bold, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">avec Moscou et </span></b><b><span style="color: #657f2d; font-family: NewsGothicBT-Bold, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Delhi</span></b></div>
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Dans la même
région, les Etats-Unis doivent également faire face aux nationalismes de l’Inde
et de la Russie, pourtant rêvés au début du premier mandat d’Obama comme des
partenaires possibles dans le grand jeu de la <i>Realpolitik</i>. Washington
comptait en effet sur eux pour des coopérations importantes. George W. Bush avait
ainsi signé un accord sur le nucléaire avec l’Inde dans l’espoir que Dehli
soutiendrait l’Amérique contre la Chine ; Obama a tenté dès le début de sa
présidence un « reset » avec la Russie, partenaire possible dans la
lutte contre le terrorisme. Le nationalisme hindou de Narendra Modi, les
déclarations enflammées de certains de ses ministres les plus importants (« l’Inde
est un pays composé d’hindous et de bâtards »…) remet en cause cette
politique indienne. Avec Moscou, le reset a tourné court. L’annexion de la
Crimée sonne désormais comme une preuve de l’échec d’Obama, et de la naïveté de
ses tentatives pour convaincre d’autres puissances de partager avec l’Amérique une
grande vision politique pour le nouveau système international post-bipolaire.
En attendant de mesurer l’impact réel des sanctions économiques infligées à
Moscou, Obama est accusé de faiblesse face à un discours nationaliste russe qui
ne se cache plus (avec des références fréquentes à l’histoire impériale russe),
inquiète les alliés européens des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale, et se
poursuit lui aussi sur fond de répression interne.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Plus
problématiques encore, peut-être, que les nationalismes retrouvés du <i>peer competitor </i>chinois et des
partenaires russe et indien d’une <i>Realpolitik</i>
introuvable<i>, </i>le nationalisme de certains
alliés, notamment le Japon et Israël, risque de menacer les intérêts
stratégiques américains dans ces zones respectives – Asie et Proche-Orient. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<b><span style="color: #657f2d; font-family: NewsGothicBT-Bold, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Les revendications japonaises<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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Le Japon de
Shinzo Abe ne cherche plus à éviter la montée
des tensions avec ses voisins chinois ni d’ailleurs sud-coréens. Son ambition
de transformer la capacité militaire japonaise en force assumée (et non plus réduite
à la défense du territoire), l’abolition de l’article 9 (restreignant la
possibilité d’interventions militaires), la modification de la constitution
pacifiste écrite dans l’après-guerre par les Américains, la réaffirmation des revendications
territoriales (y compris vis-à-vis de la Russie sur les Kouriles), inquiètent Washington.
Abe évoque fréquemment une menace militaire chinoise, sa visite controversée au
sanctuaire Yasukuni, ses propos révisionnistes sur la Seconde Guerre mondiale
(notamment sur les femmes coréennes enrôlées de force dans la prostitution),
font peu de cas des susceptibilités ou des intérêts de ses alliés. Les
Etats-Unis, qui ne souhaitent pas exacerber les tensions avec Pékin, se
retrouvent gênés par cette rhétorique, du fait de ses accords de sécurité avec
le Japon et le stationnement de ses troupes sur le sol japonais. Washington
craint désormais une montée des hostilités débouchant sur un incident (maritime
par exemple) qui en cas de dérapage entraînerait Washington dans une situation
incontrôlable, à l’heure où la fameuse politique du « pivot » fait de
l’Asie la nouvelle priorité de politique étrangère.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<o:p><b style="text-align: start;"><span style="color: #657f2d; font-family: NewsGothicBT-Bold, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Le casse-tête israélien</span></b></o:p></div>
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Israël est
un autre casse-tête pour Washington. Les déclarations du <span style="text-transform: uppercase;">p</span>remier ministre Benjamin Netanyahu pour
mobiliser la droite en sa faveur aux dernières élections ont incontestablement
choqué. Les diatribes contre le nombre élevé d’arabes israéliens s’apprêtant à
voter, les allusions à l’existence d’un complot international pour le
renverser, la justification de la colonisation pour des raisons géopolitiques,
surtout la promesse d’empêcher à tout prix la création d’un Etat palestinien,
n’aident pas à plaider la cause de l'Etat hébreu dont Washington est perçu dans
le monde comme l’allié inconditionnel.
Ajoutons à cela le style personnel de Premier ministre israélien, qui a accepté
une invitation de John Boehner pour s’adresser aux deux chambres du Congrès
sans avoir préalablement consulté le président, afin de venir dénoncer aux
Etats-Unis même la position d’Obama dans les pourparlers avec l’Iran. Considéré comme une insulte diplomatique sans
précédent, cet épisode n’a pas suscité de réponse immédiate du président, mais
a dégradé les relations. Après la victoire de Likoud et au moment de la
constitution d’un bloc gouvernemental d’ultra-droite nationaliste, Obama a
condamné les remarques du <span style="text-transform: uppercase;">p</span>remier
ministre comme nuisibles à l’objectif des Etats-Unis de promouvoir une solution
à deux Etats. Washington n’exclut plus une révision de sa posture
moyen-orientale, y compris le soutien à une résolution onusienne pour
reconnaître un Etat palestinien. Le parti républicain, silencieux dans les
jours qui ont suivi les déclarations israéliennes, se retourne maintenant
contre Obama, accusé de trahir son allié. Mais des démocrates aussi bien que
des figures importantes comme le Général Petraeus ont sonné l’alarme, estimant
que l’attitude d’Israël menaçait directement les intérêts nationaux et la
sécurité des Etats-Unis. En d’autres termes, le discours dur d’Israël déclenche
à la fois un débat houleux aux Etats-Unis une fenêtre d’opportunité pour une
rupture stratégique, et impose des repositionnements probables aux candidats à
l’élection de 2016. Hillary Clinton, supporter fervente d’Israël, pourra-t-elle
par exemple rester sur cette ligne ? <o:p></o:p></div>
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Chacun de ces
trois types de nationalisme – celui du rival, de l’interlocuteur ou de l’allié
– oblige les Etats-Unis à s’adapter à un paysage international plus hostile aux
mécanismes de la mondialisation, et à une vision libérale de l’interdépendance.
Surtout, ces nationalismes imposent une réflexion américaine de politique
étrangère sur le rapport à l’Autre. L’Autre avec ses propres intérêts, agendas,
identités, valeurs, et logiques. L’Autre qui ne souhaite pas être réduit au
rôle d’accessoire d’une politique étrangère américaine. L’Autre qui résiste
pour des raisons intérieures à la raison impérieuse de la <i>Realpolitik</i> ou de l’alliance. La question qui se pose pour l’<i>establishment </i>politique américain est
alors la suivante : dans quelle mesure les Etats-Unis doivent-ils encore essayer
d’influencer avec les moyens traditionnels les réalités et comportements extérieurs,
au risque de renforcer des réactions nationalistes ou identitaires ? Un
aggiornamento des pratiques de l’influence américaine n’est-il pas à l’ordre du
jour ? C’est là un défi de relations internationales qui dépasse la seule
politique étrangère américaine, et qui implique une refondation des socles
mêmes et des principes du dialogue interétatique, de plus en plus otage des
« fronts domestiques ».<br />
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<i>Amy Greene est politologue américaine, spécialiste des Etats-Unis et auteur du blog Potusphere. Elle collabore avec des think tanks et responsables politiques français, européens et américains. Auteur de L’Amérique Après Obama (Autrement, 2012), elle enseigne la politique américaine à Sciences Po Paris.</i><o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi59tbwZlIZFtJV-I-J-bQ4xlDCEAXbLGSPNECoFmNwM7jBVpXvQwhXjZjGb1E3J24ouDBUpRafLAIxb0WJIk02iMXT_0H63KJpnEEUPpZTiFtuQ9c8QG8rsap_3blZzrPPJNIYfCT1CbYj/s1600/ENA_Page_2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi59tbwZlIZFtJV-I-J-bQ4xlDCEAXbLGSPNECoFmNwM7jBVpXvQwhXjZjGb1E3J24ouDBUpRafLAIxb0WJIk02iMXT_0H63KJpnEEUPpZTiFtuQ9c8QG8rsap_3blZzrPPJNIYfCT1CbYj/s1600/ENA_Page_2.jpg" /></a></div>
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Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-79000917983009224502015-01-15T11:51:00.000+01:002020-10-25T09:43:16.980+01:00AMERICA IN 2014: CONFIRMATION OF AN INSURMOUNTABLE DIVIDE? (ENA HORS LES MURS)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilmq2_CUN7mSYfg2u612o8f_Pcb6Leiw61ql7j5D1QsQRr5dzS3HnkUi48WPxt2NLwhCjO501otZrgCwzW7-iT7ghLuSHVCBywbVCqkI_Npsb8e0o2fCviam6DjUNfh1PXuioHlTHlVR7u/s1600/PDF+No+447+Regards+sur+2014_Page_1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilmq2_CUN7mSYfg2u612o8f_Pcb6Leiw61ql7j5D1QsQRr5dzS3HnkUi48WPxt2NLwhCjO501otZrgCwzW7-iT7ghLuSHVCBywbVCqkI_Npsb8e0o2fCviam6DjUNfh1PXuioHlTHlVR7u/s1600/PDF+No+447+Regards+sur+2014_Page_1.jpg" height="200" width="153" /></a></div>
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Click after the jump to read a recent article summing up the year in American politics for the December 2014 Issue of <i>ENA Hors les Murs</i>.</div>
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The article touches on the <b>contradiction between an increasingly liberalizing society</b> (health care reform, legalization of marijuana, homosexual marriage) <b>and the Republican midterm rout</b>. While evoking the existence of <b>two distinct visions for America</b> (both domestic and internationally) and demographic shifts that serve to define the two conceptions of the country, the article concludes on a note about <b>Obama's approach and anticipates his action</b> following the midterm losses. For example, rather than cultivate an Obaman political generation of leaders (much as the <b>Clintons</b> did), he has chosen to <b>appeal directly to</b> his electorate, to anonymous <b>citizens</b> - at the risk of short- and medium-term electoral gains - in order to be "on the right side of history" (<b>immigration reform, climate deal with China</b>). This article was published just prior to the announcement of the normalization of relations with Cuba.</div>
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<a href="https://www.scribd.com/doc/261705561/Greene-ENA-Hors-les-Murs" nbsp="" style="text-decoration: underline;" title="View Greene ENA Hors les Murs on Scribd">Greene ENA Hors les Murs</a></div>
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<br />Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-12704125301379213492014-11-05T10:53:00.000+01:002020-10-25T09:43:17.176+01:00FRANCE24 DEBATE ON US MIDTERM ELECTIONSI had the privilege to appear on France24's Debate with François Picard on the eve of the US midterm elections along with Dan Hazelwood, Josh Kraushaar, and Hank Sheinkopf.<br />
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The lively discussion discussed the role of President Obama as a galvanizing force for Republican candidates, the prospects for the president's final two years in office, the general sentiments of the American electorate, and the main issues at stake in the midterms.<br />
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Watch the debate after the jump!<br />
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<a name='more'></a>Part I:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="270" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fSEDLWnXA-o" width="480"></iframe><br />
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Part II:<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="270" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/mqXGqEXhYEo" width="480"></iframe><br />
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<br />Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-4775354832835085332013-06-13T10:22:00.000+02:002020-10-25T09:43:17.370+01:00FRANCE24 DEBATE ON NSA LEAKS AND THE SECURITY/PRIVACY CONTINUUM<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.333333969116211px;">Earlier this week, I joined <a href="http://www.drcharlesgcogan.net/" target="_blank">Dr. Charles Cogan</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/balaitous" target="_blank">Philippe Aigrain</a> and Elle Wasylina on <a href="http://f24.my/LeDebat" target="_blank">France24's Le Débat</a> to discuss the recent <b>NSA leaks and the question of which new measures to take in a changing security climate</b>.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.333333969116211px;">Watch the debate after the jump.</span><br />
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<a name='more'></a><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.333333969116211px;"><b>Part I</b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.333333969116211px;"><b>Part II</b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/an1IaYxI7p0" width="560"></iframe></span>Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-44565684599963977152013-01-28T10:04:00.000+01:002020-10-25T09:43:17.566+01:00"A NEW AMERICA?" - MEASURING POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF SOCIAL SHIFTS (POLITIQUE INTERNATIONALE)Head over to the website of revue <i>Politique Internationale</i> to read my article appearing in the Winter 2012 volume.<br />
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The article (in French) analyzes the <b>nature and depth of ongoing social shifts</b> and the <b>consequences on the major parties' messages and strategies</b>; the political and ideological preferences of this "New America" (composed of strategic demographic and electoral blocs); and how these <b>preferences will impact both America's domestic and foreign politics</b>.<br />
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Visit <a href="http://www.politiqueinternationale.com/revue/read2.php?id_revue=137&id=1130&search=&content=texte" target="_blank"><i>Politique Internationale</i> to read the full article in French</a>.<br />
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<br />Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-29066636799496983862013-01-08T17:59:00.000+01:002020-10-25T09:43:17.769+01:00A LOOK AT CHUCK HAGEL AND JOHN BRENNAN : OBAMA'S PENTAGON AND CIA NOMINEES<br />
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<u><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Chuck Hagel: Nominee, Secretary of Defense</span></b></u></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Having Chuck Hagel (age: 66), an <b>Obama
confidante</b>, at the head of the Pentagon is intended largely to
provide <b>political cover to end combat operations</b> in
Afghanistan and to begin to <b>implement deep Pentagon budget cuts</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Hagel is chair of the <b>Atlantic Council</b> and
member of Obama’s <b>Intelligence Advisory Board</b>. He was formerly a <b>Republican
senator </b>from Nebraska (1997-2009) and head of an investment banking firm. A
two-time Purple Heart recipient, he would be the <b>first Vietnam veteran</b>
to serve as Secretary of Defense. Hagel is known – and <b>disparaged by
many Republicans</b> – for his independence vis-à-vis party orthodoxy on
foreign policy issues and for holding views considered to be views outside of
the conservative mainstream (ex. opposition to Iraq troop surge). Indeed, the
vivid battle over his nomination has already begun among
prominent Republicans, neoconservatives, Democrats, and pro-Israeli
groups.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Opposition to Hagel is tri-fold. He has
encountered <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/chuck-hagel-and-israel-in-context-a-guide-to-his-controversial-statements/2013/01/07/be1cc3f8-591c-11e2-9fa9-5fbdc9530eb9_blog.html" target="_blank"><b>major criticism</b> for past statements</a> about <b>the
pro-Israel lobby”</b>: <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/chuck-hagel-and-israel-in-context-a-guide-to-his-controversial-statements/2013/01/07/be1cc3f8-591c-11e2-9fa9-5fbdc9530eb9_blog.html" target="_blank">“[It] intimidates a lot of people around here. I havealways argued against some of the dumb things they do because I don't thinkit's [...] smart for Israel</a>.” He has refused to add his signature to letters
circulated around DC by AIPAC. Although Hagel has considerably better relations
with other arms of said lobby (J-Street, Israel Policy Forum), and the <b>support
of heavyweights like Zbigniew Brzezinski</b>, <b>Brent Scowcroft</b>, and most
former US ambassadors to Israel, <b>hardliners believe he will antagonize
Israel</b>. And to the contrary of the president, <b>Hagel opposes
sanctions against Iran</b>, favors <b>negotiations with Hamas and Iran</b>, and
has <b>criticized the largesse of America’s defense spending</b>.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Democratic opposition to Hagel centers
mainly around a negative remark made about a gay colleague a decade ago. He has
since apologized for the comment and has publicly stated his <b>support
for openly gay military service</b>.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">That Hagel personally knows war and has
shown <b>no reserve in expressing his reluctance to go to war</b> may well have an impact abroad (US approach to
Iran, willingness to align with Israel’s policies) as well as “at home”
(increased attention to returned soldiers).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">It is thought that Democrats will ultimately support the President’s choice and that Republicans
will find it difficult to confront the potential backlash of opposing a
decorated Vietnam War hero. But if Hagel wins a bitter nomination fight,
Republicans may consider him weak and show less flexibility in cutting a deal to
prevent the sequester from taking effect in late February.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><u>John Brennan: Nominee, Director of CIA</u></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">Current <b>Deputy NSA</b> for
Homeland Security and Counterterrorism and <a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=4481695127345101401" name="_GoBack"></a><b>close
confidante</b> of Obama, John Brennan (age: 57) is a <b>career CIA
agent</b> who has been party to nearly every national security question
issue in the Obama administration (including the raid on Bin Laden). Brennan
was considered for the job of CIA director in 2008, but withdrew his name for
consideration after facing <b>accusations over past public support for
“enhanced interrogation <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/closeread/2013/01/john-brennans-kill-list.html" target="_blank">techniques”</a></b><a href="http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/closeread/2013/01/john-brennans-kill-list.html" target="_blank"> and sending prisoners to countries where torture might occur. Detractors insist that as a high-ranking official inBush’ CIA, Brennan condoned tactics like waterboarding that are considered torturous</a>.
In 2009, he condemned such practices.</span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span>
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/08/us/politics/counterterror-adviser-to-be-named-chief-of-cia.html" target="_blank">A primary question elicited</a> by this pick is whether the CIA will maintain, reinforce even, its current place at the heart of counter-terror operations, or if Brennan will usher it back to its traditional espionage capacities.</span></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">During his 25 years at the CIA, Brennan
exercised a wide variety of functions, including the post of <b>station
chief in Saudi Arabia</b>. Following his time in government, Brennan was head
of a <b>security consultancy</b>, The Analysis Corporation, as well as
chair of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance, and the director of
the National Counterterrorism Center. Brennan <b>speaks fluent Arabic</b>.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><br /></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; font-size: 10.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><b>Related Reading</b></span><br />
<span class="entry-title"><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;"><a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obamas-nominations-of-hagel-brennan-signal-course-adjustments-at-pentagon-cia/2013/01/07/5afb8760-58df-11e2-88d0-c4cf65c3ad15_story.html" target="_blank">Obama’s Nominations of Hagel and Brennan Signal Course Adjustments at Pentagon and CIA (WaPo)</a></span></span><br />
<a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/brennan-pick-revives-leaks-dispute-85877.html?hp=t1" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt;" target="_blank">Brennan Pick Revives Leaks Dispute (Politico)</a><span class="entry-title"></span><br />
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: normal;"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/08/us/politics/counterterror-adviser-to-be-named-chief-of-cia.html?src=rechp" target="_blank">Choice to Lead C.I.A. Faces a Changed Agency (NYT)</a><o:p></o:p></span></h1>
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Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-90741272391982996442012-12-31T17:33:00.000+01:002020-10-25T09:43:17.978+01:00HOW THE SEQUESTER WILL IMPACT THE DEFENSE SECTORAs 2012 winds to a close, so too does the time remaining for Congressional leaders and the President to reach a bargain on the fiscal cliff.<br />
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One of the major concerns is the prospect of $500 billion in automatic cuts to defense spending set to go into effect as part of the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/09/14/the-sequester-explained/" target="_blank">sequestration</a>.<br />
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After the jump is a batch of links detailing how the sequestration will likely impact the larger defense community (Pentagon-both civil and military, defense industry, and defense lobbyists).<br />
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- <a href="http://www.govexec.com/management/2012/12/sequestration-once-unimaginable-draws-near/60390/" target="_blank">Sequestration, Once Unimaginable, Draws Near</a> (GovExec) - An overview of the technics of the impending automatic cuts and how the various agencies (including Defense) might respond.<br />
<br />
- <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/defense-sector-braces-for-self-amputation-85491.html" target="_blank">Defense Sector Braces for "Self-Amputation"</a> (<i>Politico</i>) - alarming look at how the defense sector is preparing for both immediate automatic cuts and a difficult decade to come, how sequester is a mirror for longer-term challenges to the sector including shifting perceptions about the necessary size of American defense and commensurate spending levels, and how the industry is looking to protect itself and adapt to a changing general climate<br />
<br />
- <a href="http://csis.org/publication/defense-budgets-double-whammy-drawing-down-while-hollowing-out-within" target="_blank">The Defense Budget's Double Whammy: Drawing Down While Hollowing Out From Within </a>(CSIS Report)<br />
<br />
- <a href="http://blogs.defensenews.com/intercepts/2012/12/fiscal-cliff-blog-charting-defense-related-developments-as-lawmakers-seek-deal/" target="_blank">DefenseNews' LiveBlog of defense-related developments in the fiscal cliff negotiations</a><br />
<br />
- <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2012/1217/How-fiscal-cliff-is-already-hitting-defense-industry" target="_blank">How Fiscal Cliff Is Already Hitting Defense Industry</a> (CS Monitor)Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-52806639983706699492012-11-19T14:37:00.001+01:002020-10-25T09:43:18.171+01:00OBAMA REELECTION CONFIRMS SHIFT IN US STRATEGIC CULTURE (IRSEM)<span style="text-align: justify;">The reelection
of Barack Obama confirms a shift in American strategic culture and has served
to highlight </span><a href="http://www.diploweb.com/EU-Clash-des-generations-Les-Baby.html" style="text-align: justify;" target="_blank">deep and meaningful demographic and ideological transformations</a><span style="text-align: justify;"> in
the </span><a href="http://www.potusphere.com/2012/10/in-most-recent-issue-of-nouvelle-revue.html" style="text-align: justify;" target="_blank">American electorate and in its foreign political preferences</a><span style="text-align: justify;">.</span><br />
<span style="text-align: justify;"></span><br />
<a name='more'></a><span style="text-align: justify;"><br /></span>
<br />
<h2>
<span style="font-size: small; text-align: justify;">Confirmation of a shift in strategic culture</span></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
The 2012
campaign was marked by two candidates each advancing widely different worldviews.
Mitt Romney focused almost exclusively on a foreign policy based on the
preservation of traditional American leadership and power in the world – an
emphasis on military might, interstate and bilateral relations, a world divided
into friends (Israel, Eastern and Central Europe among others) and enemies
(Russia, China), and even a proposition to create a Ronald Reagan Economic Zone
to attract and codify cooperation between developed and emerging
democracies. Conversely, Obama placed
more emphasis on his record on foreign policy as president (for which Americans
rate him very favorably) and on the need to exercise military action as a last
resort; the importance of multilateral institutions, partnerships and
coalitions in foreign action; and on the need for renewed American
competitiveness – but also greater cooperation – vis-à-vis emerging powers.
Obama’s main messages tended to focus more heavily on frontier foreign policy
issues, transversal problems that require common approaches and multilayered responses
– the so-called global commons issues like nuclear proliferation and climate
change (which his National Security Strategy classified a threat equivalent to
a foreign invasion on US soil).</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b>A Non Western-bound Vision of the World</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-align: justify;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-align: justify;">Ultimately, the
competing visions put forth by Obama and Romney correspond almost uniformly to
demographic shifts already underway in American society – the emergence of two
opposing generational poles, the Baby Boomers (born after WWII) and the
Millennials (born 1981-2000). The main distinctions between the groups are: 1)
for the Boomers, a general fear of the future (immigration, the loss of
American prestige and an eventual decline, and the need to assert America’s
force in the face of changing geopolitics); and 2) for the Millennials,
America’s most ethnically diverse generation ever and the first to exceed 100
million people, an unprecedented level of social tolerance exemplified in an
embrace of immigration, social mobility programs, diplomacy and smart power,
and the conviction that the US president should focus more on Asia-Pacific,
breaking ground on climate change, and building partnerships – and less on
Middle East peace, for example.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<b>Demographic Shifts to a New Foreign <span style="text-transform: uppercase;">p</span>olicy</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="http://bernardthomasson.com/2012/11/08/la-recomposition-ideologique-de-lamerique/" target="_blank">That youngAmericans – especially the Millennial generation – turned out to support Obamawith the same intensity as in 2008 was a welcome surprise for Democrats.</a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">Their choice of
Obama dismantled the central Republican argument against the president for the
past four years – that Obama’s presidency was a fluke of history that would be
rejected a second time as a failed experiment. Although nearly half of the
country did not vote for Obama, an overwhelming number of young Americans did.
Their participation announced at least two major changes: first, that young and
active Americans reject Republican nostalgia, concur largely with the policy
priorities laid out by Obama, and are eager to express this at the polls; and
second, that while all Americans do not welcome the emergence of a new
multicultural America, it has already proven both inevitable and very much
present in the landscape – years earlier than anticipated. Over the span of two
presidential elections, Millennials have mobilized to confirm their notion of
which direction America should pursue – to move the country away from the Cold
War paradigms that marked the Baby Boomer generation and to embrace a new
conception of the primary challenges and priorities facing the United States, as well as wielding a new set of tools to confront them.<a href="http://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=4481695127345101401" name="_GoBack"></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-36683066603911250872012-11-08T19:52:00.001+01:002020-10-25T09:43:18.372+01:00AMERICA'S DEMOGRAPHIC AND IDEOLOGICAL SHAKE-UP (FRANCE INFO)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
I had the pleasure of sitting for an interview with <b><a href="https://twitter.com/franceinfo" target="_blank">France Info</a>'s <a href="https://twitter.com/b_thomasson" target="_blank">Bernard Thomasson</a></b> during his show "<a href="http://www.franceinfo.fr/Bernard-Thomasson" target="_blank">Le 12 14</a>." We <b>decrypt Obama's reelection</b> and the increasing importance in American politics of the <b>young multicultural Millennial generation</b> - a coalition largely responsible for twice delivering Obama to victory.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://bernardthomasson.com/2012/11/08/la-recomposition-ideologique-de-lamerique/" target="_blank">Click here to listen to our discussion, originally aired on France Info on November 7</a> (around 3')<br />
<br />
On a similar note, here is an article I published in March 2012 on the excellent site <a href="http://www.diploweb.com/" target="_blank"><b>DIPLOWEB</b></a> on <a href="http://www.diploweb.com/EU-Clash-des-generations-Les-Baby.html" target="_blank"><b>how the emergence of two generational poles</b>, the Millennials and the Baby Boomers, <b>is shaping up to change US domestic politics and its foreign policy horizons.</b></a></div>
Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-11458084616031105362012-11-05T22:06:00.001+01:002020-10-25T09:43:18.598+01:00CAPITAL BRIEF - PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CLOSING ARGUMENTS<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span style="text-align: left;">Election Day is almost here! The latest Capital Brief looks at the </span><b style="text-align: left;">state of the race</b><span style="text-align: left;"> heading into the vote and </span><b style="text-align: left;">poses just a few of the many questions for the aftermath</b><span style="text-align: left;"> of November 6.</span></div>
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Click below to read the <i>Brief</i>.</div>
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<a name='more'></a><br />
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<b style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-size: x-large;">Capital Brief </span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: center; text-indent: 12px;">
<b>Amy Greene</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center; text-indent: 12px;">
<b style="background-color: white; text-indent: -18pt;"><span style="font-size: 11pt;">Capital Brief – November 5, 2012</span></b></div>
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<b><u><span style="font-size: 16.0pt; letter-spacing: .3pt;">Election Day -1:
Closing Arguments in Neck-and-Neck Race<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">FACTS:</span></b></div>
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<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Closing arguments</span></b><span lang="EN-GB">: both candidates maintain
sharp attacks. <b><u>Obama</u></b><u>
touts his record and defends presidency as change agent for middle class
Americans</u>. <b><u>Romney</u></b><u>
accuses Obama of not having done enough</u> and making speeches rather
than results.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Early vote</span></b><span lang="EN-GB">: one of the keys to Obama’s
2008 victory, Republicans worked to stunt an Obama early vote momentum in
2012. The president maintains a slight lead among those having voted
early, but <b>Romney has made up
enough ground to effectively neutralize Obama’s advantage</b>. Example:
seniors (strongly pro-Romney) intend to vote early in greater numbers than
young people (Obama stronghold).<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Fluctuating polls</span></b><span lang="EN-GB">: <u>national polls show Obama
and Romney in a statistical tie</u>, but the Electoral College trumps. To
date, <b>Obama has more mathematical
paths to 270 electoral votes</b>. Swing state polls are tight; Obama
maintains a narrow though stable lead in Ohio whereas Romney is up in
Virginia. Florida looks all but tied. <b>Some
early indications predict an Obama victory with about 300 electoral votes</b>,
but the reality is <u>nobody can predict</u> even at this stage exactly
how it will turn out.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Most undecided
voters have chosen their candidate</span></b><span lang="EN-GB">. The 3% who still declare themselves as
undecided are most likely to abstain from voting. The question now is, <b>who can better turn out their base on
Election Day</b>? Romney’s Republican coalition is reliable in voting
massively. Obama’s constituencies are generally more unreliable. <b>Will Obama’s voter registration effort
give him edge on November 6</b>?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l1 level1 lfo1; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-GB">Other races critical: <b>Senate likely to remain Democrat</b>, and <b>Congress Republican</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
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<b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;">ANALYSIS:<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-GB">The <b>economy</b>
(stimulate growth, create jobs, reduce deficit) <b>is still voters’ primary concern</b>. E<b>ntitlement reform</b> (Medicare, social security) may also factor.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-GB">Social issues proved
weighty</span></b><span lang="EN-GB"> in
this election, too. Once the province of Republicans, Obama used them to
mobilize his key demographic groups (women, Hispanics, minorities, young
people) and contrast his vision from Romney’s. Think topics like <b>abortion, immigration, gay marriage,
gay military service</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><b><span lang="EN-GB">After the
election</span></b><span lang="EN-GB"> -
What <b>role in elections for money
and media</b> (esp. Super PACs)? Democrats massively registered new
voters, esp. <b>Hispanics</b> – who
were ignored by Republicans. <b>How
will Democrats ensure their continued mobilization</b> after Nov 6<b>?</b> <b>How will Republicans adapt strategy and message to Hispanics</b>,
young people, and minorities that reject their program now? <b>Will either party try to reach across
the demographic divide</b>, or instead expect more voter-targeting
messaging? <o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-GB">If <u>Obama wins</u>, how will he govern
with a divided Congress? What <b>second
term priorities and what strategy</b> to achieve them? Will he make more
of an <b>effort to cull liberal base</b>?
Will Republicans find it expedient to employ same systematic opposition to
Obama as they look to grab 2016 victory?<o:p></o:p></span></li>
<li class="MsoNormal" style="mso-list: l0 level1 lfo2; tab-stops: list .5in; text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><span lang="EN-GB">If <u>Romney wins</u>, will he <b>govern from the Center or the Far
Right</b>? <b>Will he be able to
mitigate the warring currents</b> in his own party to establish clear
leadership? How closely would his agenda resemble his electoral promises? <b>What roles for new GOP generation </b>in
Romney administration, if not preparing for 2016 bid?</span><o:p></o:p></li>
</ul>
<!--EndFragment-->Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-60738447240415673432012-11-05T22:00:00.000+01:002020-10-25T09:43:18.819+01:0024 HOURS IN AMERICA (FRANCE CULTURE)<a href="http://www.franceculture.fr/emission-les-matins-24h-dans-l-amerique-d-aujourd-hui-les-grands-enjeux-de-l-election-americaine-201" target="_blank">Click here to listen to an interview this morning on France Culture</a> (in French)<br />
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<br />Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-86644362637118209912012-10-30T08:13:00.003+01:002020-10-25T09:43:19.023+01:00COMMUNICATION IN THE 2012 RACELast night, NYU in Paris hosted a wide-ranging debate about the communications and messaging of Barack Obama and Mitt Romney during this 2012 campaign.<br />
<br />
Here is a brief recap of a few of the points I raised:<br />
<br />
-Where once Obama was characterized by his opponents as "European," "not like us," or even "unAmerican," he has turned that discourse against his Republican rival - in the context of having contributed to outsourcing jobs, opposing the auto bailout (argument made notably in Ohio), and being too rich to identify with the average American's primary preoccupations (argument that his policies favor the elite class because Romney doesn't know anything else).<br />
<br />
-The president is also using the metaphor of color to characterize the competition, which not only draws a racial distinction in the minds of some voters, but uses an evocative image to cast Barack Obama as the politician for America's future and Romney as a proponent of a by-gone era with its dated narrative and divisions. For example, Obama has accused Romney of being the candidate of "black and white" whereas the president is the "technicolor candidate."<br />
<br />
-The 2012 campaign has been largely driven by a negative tone compared to 2008, the unifying and grandiose themes replaced by a competition which has been framed as a choice between visions for social, cultural, and economic justice in America.<br />
<br />
-Hurricane Sandy could pose a problem in the communications operations in this last week. This could be disproportionately difficult for Romney. Without being insensitive about the real suffering and damage caused by the storm, it offers President Obama the occasion to once again assert the full authority of his office (free television airtime, reminding voters that he has immediate and privileged access to the most important lawmakers to coordinate the response). Power outages could negatively affect voters' abilities to view ads aired in these next days, the storm's path changes the candidates' stump schedules, and damages could prove an obstacle to voters wanting to turn out on Election Day.Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-55024582653551005752012-10-29T14:03:00.001+01:002020-10-25T09:43:19.218+01:00GUANTANAMO, ABSENT IN THE ELECTORAL DEBATE (LIBÉRATION)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Wikileaks recently published new documents giving further detail about the American presence at Guantanamo, but the topic has remained outside of the central electoral debate in the US.<br />
<br />
<i>Libération</i> takes a look at why the prison at Guantanamo has not been closed (despite Obama's promise), the reasons it does not figure among the American public's top priorities, and why both Obama and Romney are reluctant to make it an electoral message.<br />
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I am pleased to figure among the specialists interviewed in the article.<br />
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<a href="http://www.liberation.fr/monde/2012/10/26/guantanamo-la-grande-absente-du-debat-americain_856246" target="_blank">Read: Guantanamo, la grande absente du débat américain (Libération)</a></div>
Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-4558891601037052522012-10-28T19:52:00.002+01:002020-10-25T09:43:19.413+01:00ROLE OF MEDIA, MONEY, AND MESSAGE IN 2012 CAMPAIGN (TV5)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Along with France 2's <a href="https://twitter.com/LEENHARDT" target="_blank">Etienne Leenhardt</a>, I was a guest on this week's installment of <a href="http://www.france5.fr/emissions/medias-le-magazine/diffusions/28-10-2012_6937" target="_blank">Médias Le Magazine </a>on TV5, hosted by <a href="https://twitter.com/mediathom" target="_blank">Thomas Hugues</a> and featuring editorial panelists <a href="https://twitter.com/tomisle" target="_blank">Thomas Isle</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/jlmissika" target="_blank">Jean-Louis Missika</a>, and <a href="https://twitter.com/a_bellanger" target="_blank">Anthony Bellanger</a>.<br />
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<br /></div>
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We talked about the role of <b>Super PAC</b> spending, partisan TV networks like <b>Fox and MSNBC</b>, <b>negative ads</b>, <b>social networks</b> and <b>humor </b>in the winning voters in this year's American presidential election. </div>
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<br /></div>
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<a href="http://www.france5.fr/emissions/medias-le-magazine/diffusions/28-10-2012_6937" target="_blank">Head over to Médias Le Magazine to watch the full episode</a> (the segment on US elections begins at 8'50).</div>
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Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-27661044763364382062012-10-27T08:56:00.002+02:002020-10-25T09:43:19.607+01:00OBAMA V. ROMNEY : WHO IS THE BEST ON SOCIAL NETWORKS? (PUBLIC SENAT)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVzcNno3cu9dMhK3fzMZ5YDDI2k_UrmWyYWtufpEiyIX5mVtxQSWvEkj9agGEI1jAnC4me1vpjSOLxFEb1DSEza65eieU3SINNXALvfoVelE-pXU9qaoda0hO8n0TSLP6nhi9RNmVnlFRZ/s1600/Screen+Shot+2012-10-27+at+8.52.40+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVzcNno3cu9dMhK3fzMZ5YDDI2k_UrmWyYWtufpEiyIX5mVtxQSWvEkj9agGEI1jAnC4me1vpjSOLxFEb1DSEza65eieU3SINNXALvfoVelE-pXU9qaoda0hO8n0TSLP6nhi9RNmVnlFRZ/s320/Screen+Shot+2012-10-27+at+8.52.40+AM.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<a href="http://www.publicsenat.fr/vod/la-politique-c-est-net/les-elections-americaines/marjorie-paillon,philippe-moreau-chevrolet,aude-baron/122134" target="_blank">La Politique C'est Net</a>, hosted by <a href="https://twitter.com/carolinedescham" target="_blank">Caroline Deschamps</a>, is a terrific program found on Public Sénat.<br />
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<br /></div>
<div>
In this episode, in addition to Deschamps we are three panelists to discuss the <b>web campaigns of Obama and Romney</b>, the impact of the two <b>online voter targeting strategies</b>, and whose team more fully embraced the online possibilities of this race.</div>
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Also on the panel, were Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet (<a href="http://blogs.lexpress.fr/yes-they-can/" target="_blank">Yes They Can!</a>) and Marjorie Paillon (<a href="http://www.ilovepolitics.info/" target="_blank">ilovepolitics</a>). Don't miss Aude Baron's chronicle at the end of the episode.</div>
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Video after the jump.</div>
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<a name='more'></a><br /></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px;"><iframe frameborder="no" framespacing="0" height="265" scrolling="no" src="http://videos.publicsenat.fr/vodiFrame.php?idE=122134" valign="top" width="424"></span><br style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "><span style="font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); "></iframe></span></div>
Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-75570022974744694432012-10-26T14:48:00.001+02:002020-10-25T09:43:19.815+01:00LA CHRONIQUE DE AMY GREENE -THE STATE OF THE RACE TWO WEEKS FROM ELECTION DAY? (AFRICA 1)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
On last night's Chronique, Francis Laloupo and I discussed the <b>state of the race less than two weeks from Election Day</b>, including the <b>fluctuating poll results</b>, what are the candidates' <b>closing arguments and strategies</b>, and who has the <b>momentum on the ground</b>.<br />
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As always, la Chronique de Amy Greene airs on Radio Africa 1's Le Grand Débat, which begins at 6pm (Paris).<br />
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Listen after the jump.<br />
<br />
<a name='more'></a>The segment begins around minute 45.<br />
<object height="81" width="100%"> <param name="movie" value="https://player.soundcloud.com/player.swf?url=http%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F64869292"></param>
<param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param>
<embed allowscriptaccess="always" height="81" src="https://player.soundcloud.com/player.swf?url=http%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F64869292" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="100%"></embed> </object> <a href="http://soundcloud.com/amy-greene-1/la-chronique-de-amy-greene-25">La Chronique de Amy Greene - 25 October - State of the Race 2 Weeks Away</a> by <a href="http://soundcloud.com/amy-greene-1">Amy Greene 1</a> </div>
Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-78438624311071824502012-10-24T09:32:00.000+02:002020-10-25T09:43:20.014+01:00TWO WEEKS FROM ELECTION DAY: DEBATING THE LAST WEEKS OF A VERY TIGHT RACE (FRANCE 24)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Last night on France 24's Le Débat, hosted by Vanessa Burggraf, we were a panel of four to discuss the result of the <b>final presidential debate</b>, the <b>state of the race</b> heading into the final two weeks including the <b>keys to victory</b>, and the <b>contrasting foreign policy visions</b> of the two candidates (including Obama's first term foreign policy).<br />
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Also on the panel were Philip Golub, Stuart Haugen and Anne Kraatz.<br />
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Video (in French) after the jump.<br />
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<a name='more'></a><iframe frameborder="0" height="270" src="http://www.dailymotion.com/embed/video/xuk3cw" width="480"></iframe><br />
<a href="http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xuk3cw_23-10-2012-le-debat-partie-1_news" target="_blank">23/10/2012 LE DEBAT PARTIE 1</a> <i>par <a href="http://www.dailymotion.com/france24" target="_blank">france24</a></i><br />
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<iframe frameborder="0" height="270" src="http://www.dailymotion.com/embed/video/xuk3c4" width="480"></iframe><br />
<a href="http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xuk3c4_23-10-2012-le-debat-partie-2_news" target="_blank">23/10/2012 LE DEBAT PARTIE 2</a> <i>par <a href="http://www.dailymotion.com/france24" target="_blank">france24</a></i></div>
Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-82353164851802803602012-10-23T18:17:00.001+02:002020-10-25T09:43:20.213+01:00LA CHRONIQUE DE AMY GREENE - SECOND DEBATE SEES A RESURGENT OBAMA (AFRICA 1)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
On the October 18 edition of La Chronique de Amy Greene, aired during Africa 1's <i>Le Grand Débat </i>with Francis Laloupo, our discussion centered on Obama's surging performance at the second presidential debate.<br />
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The town-hall style debate format saw candidate Obama come out strong to establish a narrative for Romney, to emphasize his opposition to the Republican's policies namely on issues dear to swing voters - including women - and the Democratic base (such as growth and well-being of the middle class, the auto bailout, male-female workplace equality, and immigration).<br />
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The conclusion: while Obama won the second face-to-face with Romney, placing him in a strong position leading into the final debate on foreign policy, the fundamental closeness and volatility of this race remained unchanged.<br />
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The Chronique airs every Thursday around 6:45pm Paris.<br />
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October 18 audio after the jump.<br />
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<a name='more'></a><object height="81" width="100%"> <param name="movie" value="https://player.soundcloud.com/player.swf?url=http%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F64502570"></param>
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<embed allowscriptaccess="always" height="81" src="https://player.soundcloud.com/player.swf?url=http%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F64502570" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="100%"></embed> </object> <span><a href="http://soundcloud.com/amy-greene-1/chronique-de-amy-greene-second">Chronique de Amy Greene - Second presidential debate</a> by <a href="http://soundcloud.com/amy-greene-1">Amy Greene 1</a></span> </div>
Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4481695127345101401.post-6821226577859837252012-10-23T13:31:00.000+02:002020-10-25T09:43:20.426+01:00OBAMA MAINTAINS FOREIGN POLICY ADVANTAGE, BUT ROMNEY ISN'T OUT YET (LE MONDE)<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Over at <i>Le Monde</i>, I contributed an op-ed this morning with a rundown of last night's final debate between Obama and Romney, largely hailed by voters as a victory for the president.<br />
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In a debate remarkable in the virulence of the attacks leveraged, the scope of topics was surprisingly narrow, and most of the candidates' arguments were retread from various campaign speeches and events.<br />
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The big question of the night was leadership. The president accused his Republican rival of poor judgment, a man dangerously subscribing to the values and frameworks of a by-gone era. For his part, Romney condemned the president's weak global leadership, an "apology tour" that has seen the US' enemies empowered (Iran) and its allies cast aside (Israel). For all of their differences in world vision, Romney did agree with Obama on a number of issues (use of drones), in some cases making only minor distinctions (would have asked Mubarak to step down, but earlier). Perhaps a smart tactical move for a candidate hoping to pick up centrist and undecided voters...<br />
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Romney did not disqualify himself from the commander-in-chief test. The president was aggressive, and while supporters may celebrate the bite in his repeated attacks against Romney, it is unclear if voters will agree - or rather see it as unbecoming and evidence of a struggling candidate. Likewise, will voters sign on for Mitt Romney's calls for more defense spending and a more robust US presence in the world in a time of budgetary constraint and reduced ambition in American public opinion?<br />
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Foreign policy remains a secondary issue in the 2012 elections. Will Obama transform last night's performance into a second wind of electoral momentum? Or will Romney's cool showing be enough to convince voters to make a change?<br />
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<a href="http://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2012/10/23/obama-garde-l-avantage-en-politique-etrangere-mais-romney-ne-s-est-pas-dequalifie_1779492_3232.html" target="_blank">Click here to read the full text (in French) via <i>Le Monde</i></a><br />
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Amy Greenehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00988825046886643457noreply@blogger.com