Here is the fourth issue of Capital Brief, from July 3, focusing on the impact of the Supreme Court's historic ruling to uphold Obama's health care reform.
Click below to read the Brief.
FACTS:
Capital Brief
Amy Greene
Capital Brief, n°4 – July 3, 2012
Health Care
Victory for Dems – But Not Yet in the Clear
FACTS:
· In an unexpected
turn of events, the Supreme Court
ruled to uphold the entirety of the Affordable Health Care Act (Obamacare
to some) including the controversial
“mandate” requiring able, uninsured Americans to buy insurance or face a
monetary penalty.
· The Court voted down political lines, with the deciding vote cast by Chief Justice John
Roberts. Roberts voted to uphold the law by insisting the “mandate” provision is actually a “tax”
which can be constitutionally imposed by Congress.
· Democrats
rejoice the news, rightly counting this as a historic long-term victory and immediate validation of Obama’s use of power by all three branches of government. It provides a needed boost and a reason to discuss Romney’s record as Massachusetts
governor (where he signed the law on which Obamacare is based).
· Republicans
highlight the law passed only because it
was deemed a “tax.” They recall Obama’s
promise not to raise taxes on middle class families. They count the ruling a failure for the president
because his core legal argument was rebuffed (though the law was ultimately
maintained on other grounds).
ANALYSIS:
· A legal
victory for the Democrats. A
decision that crossed the Court’s partisan
political divisions, affirmed a
moral vision for America, and maintained
the Court’s credibility after a spate of recent party-line conservative
rulings.
·
Presented another occasion for Obama to offer distinct, sweeping social
blueprint for America: combination of health care, support of gay
marriage, recent executive order on immigration, urgency of Obama’s
climate/environment message.
·
But current
electoral climate makes a mitigated victory for Obama. Why?
o Public
opinion does not understand or support the law. A majority approve a repeal
(52%). There is considerable fear of
additional costs, disdain for buy-in
requirement, and confusion about
how actual benefits will improve coverage and save costs (law to be rolled out
by 2014).
o Conservative
voters and wary Independents now “fired up” (Palin): the only option to overturn Obamacare is to elect Romney (promised to
gut law).
o Voters’ central concern is still the economy.
Obama team can improve public discussion of law’s benefits, but will be
discreet to due to law’s unpopularity. Want to avoid perception that president is distracted from job creation/economy.
A victory on which Obama cannot actively
campaign.
o There
will be obstacles in execution. Namely states
opting not to implement law hoping
for Romney victory (Gov. Jindal,
Louisiana; Gov. Scott, Florida)
or refusing Medicare expansion and
accompanying federal dollars.
