Here is the fifth issue of Capital Brief, from July 10, focusing on recent conservative and Republican criticisms of Romney and a rejuvenated Obama campaign message.
Click below to read the Brief.
Capital Brief
Amy Greene
Capital Brief, n°5 – July 10, 2012
The Heat on Romney:
Where Is the Substance?
FACTS:
·
Mitt
Romney again outraises Obama (June: $106m Romney v. $71m Obama) showing
both Republican backers’ conviction that Obama
is beatable and lower donor enthusiasm
for Obama than in 2008. (Romney has still
not overcome Obama’s narrow polling leads)
o But
many top Republicans are exasperated over his lack of public policy proposals,
warning that inaction and timidity will be
no match for Obama’s tough Chicago team (cf. Rupert Murdoch, William
Kristol). They argue that waiting
for time to pass without going on offense spells loss.
· They also criticize
Romney’s response to the Supreme Court health reform ruling for its conflicting
messages and fumbling over consistent language to strike the controversial part
of the ruling head-on. The result meant that Romney was absent at a moment crucial to selling an authoritative narrative
opposing the law.
· Obama surrogates have pounced on the discovery
of Romney’s Swiss bank accounts and
Bermuda corporate holdings. For many Americans, Swiss bank accounts signify
quasi-legal murkiness; for others, inaccessible wealth. Both options feed the perception of someone out of touch with the
middle class realities and struggles and extend past the aspirational, into
the “unlikeable.”
·
Romney will travel to the London Olympics before visiting Israel to meet Netanyahu.
The trip will give Romney the chance to give Americans the image of presidential
stature. Hillary Clinton will visit
Israel just before Romney.
ANALYSIS:
· Romney won a
long and difficult primary in part by remaining discreet and allowing other
candidates to self-destruct - no major risks,
no major gaffes. But even his backers doubt that holding back can win a
presidential election.
· Romney calls the
president a failure without going on the stump to detail an alternative roadmap.
His central talking point remains his business experience, still an
unconvincing argument to many Americans.
o The closeness of
the election would confirm voters’
doubts about Obama. But will they vote against an incumbent without receiving
an arsenal of concrete and transparent, detailed policy prescriptions from
the adversary?
o The less Romney
says, the easier it is for Obama’s team
to define Romney publicly as coreless, out-of-touch, and ideological. Likeability is a problem for
both Romney and Obama (himself struggling with working class white voters);
but the more convincingly Obama advocates for the middle class – and the more opaque Romney’s personal dealings seem –
the harder for Romney to reclaim his own narrative.
o Obama has come out swinging with renewed focus on energizing Democratic voters and intensifying calls to protect middle class while castigating
Republican Congress (cf. proposed extension of Bush tax cuts for
middle class, gay marriage support, immigration order, student
loan bill).
