Here is the seventh issue of Capital Brief, from July 24, analyzing Mitt Romney's (still vague) defense policy proposals and their consequences.
Click below to read the Brief.
Capital Brief
Amy Greene
Capital Brief, n°7 – July 24, 2012
Romney in Europe
& Israel:
What
Expectations? Will Electoral Dynamics Change?
FACTS:
· Trip likely to be heavy on form and symbolism, light
on substance with no overt criticism of Obama’s foreign policy to be
expected.
· Intended to provide Americans with image of Romney as presidential – and
the chance to imagine someone other than Obama in that role. Still, the single focus of this election is the
economy with almost no attention paid
to foreign policy.
·
Romney’s agenda (UK, Israel, Poland):
o In
London: D. Cameron, N. Clegg, W.
Hague, E. Miliband, T. Blair, Olympics Opening Ceremony. His wife co-owns
dressage horse in competition there.
o
In Israel: B. Netanyahu, S. Peres, S. Fayyad. Will also
meet S. Mofaz, NOT M. Abbas. This
will be Romney’s fourth trip to Israel, the last in January 2011. Romney’s
known Netanyahu since the 1970s via Boston Consulting Group.
o In Poland: B. Komorowski, D. Tusk, R. Sikorski, L.
Walesa. Romney invited by Walesa who
snubbed Obama in May 2011 and questioned Peace Prize.
ANALYSIS:
· Obama team increasing pressure on Romney to express foreign
policy vision abroad; question
allegiance to his own remarks (Flournoy: Will Romney call Russia an enemy
in Warsaw?); contrast Romney’s
destinations with Obama’s 2008 trip to Afghanistan and Iraq (troops,
commanders), and European capitals.
· Even if Romney’s hawkish foreign policy talk could
be chalked up to an electoral contrast with Obama, Romney’s choice of stops reminiscent of Bush – the places were selected for sharing US’s “love of liberty” and “fortitude to
defend it.”
·
Interesting
to note where Romney is NOT going: namely Berlin, Brussels
and Paris. Berlin, so critical in the solution to the Eurozone crisis;
Paris with its brand new administration (Socialist); and Brussels as the power
center of official Europe. Does this reflect unwillingness to dialogue with EU power centers, or signal a preference for bilateral relations
rather than engaging the EU as an official actor?
·
How will
Romney be received, especially in Israel
where he has been aiming to develop closer links while also vowing to do the
“opposite” of Obama there. Romney certainly hopes the trip will help win Jewish voters back home, increasingly
cool on Obama (Gallup: 64% Jewish voters favor Obama now vs. 78% in Nov. 2008)
·
Trip unlikely to give Romney major boost back
home:
o Obama has effectively taken national
security and foreign policy off the table. In some cases Obama has proven
tougher than his predecessor – increased use of drones, plus he got Bin Laden.
Despite any grumbling about his policy to Syria, most Americans oppose
military action there.
§
Recent Gallup poll shows that more Americans trust Obama on foreign
policy: 52% favor president vs. 40% Romney. An ambitious window to try to
close given Romney’s troubles with more critical gaps – namely with Hispanics.
