Here is the eighth issue of Capital Brief, from August 28, analyzing the Republican National Convention and the expectations placed on Romney.
Click below to read the Brief.
Capital Brief
Amy Greene
Capital Brief, n°8 – August 28, 2012
FACTS:
·
The RNC platform is a snapshot
of the current G.O.P. and the shifting currents within it. The document
outlines main principals/objectives for the coming years, ideas that do not
always become legislation. Some elements of the 2012 RNC platform:
o Favor economic growth, extension
of Bush tax cuts; support constitutional amendmentopposing same sex marriage; opposegun control legislation and use of public funds to promote or
perform abortions; tougher measures
against illegal immigration; energy independence via offshore drilling, coal, and prevention of greenhouse gas
regulations; prevent implementation of Obamacare
o
Criticize Obama’s weak stances towards North Korea, China, Iran, and reductions in military spending; calls
Republican national security strategy one that “restores as a principal objective deterrence using the full spectrum of
our military capabilities”
· Hurricane Isaac delayed the start of convention activities and
distracted in part from RNC news coverage.
ANALYSIS:
· The RNC is the first in a series of high-stakes general
election events for Mitt Romney, to be followed by three crucial
presidential debates in which stellar performance is essential for him.
· For many Americans, the RNC acceptance speech is the first time
they seriously looked at Romney candidacy. There was pressure on his
speech to:
o Introduce Romney to the American public and reclaim and reshape a narrative about
Romney that has been defined much by Obama campaign;
o Frame general election by
bringing focus back on economy, outlining a clear
vision for the country, and explaining how his leadership is solution;
o
Move beyond calling Obama
failure to prescribe specific corrective policies.
·
Current electoral dynamics slightly favor Obama:
o Since summer, Obama’s
relentless attacks have been effective at defining the candidate Romney – Romney’s unfavorability ratings rose
steadily, and he did not narrow the
gap with women, minority, and youth voters.
o
Majority of Americans call Romney “too rich for too long” and see
him as a symbol of corporate
America/Wall Street in a climate of contempt for executive culture and
excess.
o Obama maintains an Electoral College edge and is polling better in several key swing states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and especially Ohio.
·
Adding Paul Ryan as VP candidate has
not fundamentally changed the race. His conservatism provides cover for reticent conservatives allowing
them to vote Romney. He may help put his
home state, Wisconsin, into play. The Romney camp hopes Ryan’s addition
will take the debate from personal attacks to big issues, namely the economy.
But the debate since Ryan’s introduction
has not been the economy, but rather a fight
over the future of Medicare (and notion that Romney/Ryan would gut it).
