Here is the last issue of Capital Brief, from October 12, that takes a look at how the vice presidential candidates measured up to expectations in their face-off.
Click below to read the Brief.
Capital Brief
Amy Greene
Capital Brief – October 12, 2012
Vice Presidential
Debate: What Outcome for Biden, Ryan?
CONTEXT and EXPECTATIONS:
· The fallout from the first debate
was a wild swing in polling data that
saw Mitt Romney take the lead in the national race, tie Obama among women, and surge
in several swing states. It is unclear how
long this “bounce” will last and how
permanent this polling shift will prove to be.
· In the meantime, unemployment fell to 7.8%, cutting a
hole in a central Romney argument of Obama failure on the economy. In a
consequent reversal of course Democrats
have begun to steer the conversation back to the economy, where the Republicans
now look for Dem foreign policy weaknesses (ie. Benghazi fallout)
· What was expected of Biden and Ryan?
o
Joseph Biden:
rev up listless Obama supporters; relentlessly attacks on Paul Ryan and Rep
positions (esp. tax cuts); attempts to force
Ryan into choice between his own stances and the newly-moderate proposals
of Romney to play into narrative of “Republican Say-Anything Campaign”; link Romney to Ryan’s conservatism and
to do-nothing Congress; send frequent signals to voters Middle
Class that Obama understands and is like them.
o
Paul Ryan: double challenge of darting to the Center to attract
undecideds to Romney while remaining
faithful to his own ideas (“Ryan Plan” for US budget). Inexperienced in
debates, Reps aimed to set low
expectations; avoid detailed specifics of Romney tax cuts; consistently
hammering home discrepancy between Obama
words and actions.
ANALYSIS:
·
No clear winner, no clear loser. No memorable gaffes. Both men
honourably represented their tickets, demonstrated strength and confidence. For
two men whose 2016 prospects loomed over the Oct 11 debate, Biden emerged fighting and Ryan solidified his spot in the vanguard
of next generation Republicans.
·
Debate
focused on foreign policy much more than expected. Biden was the authority,
but Ryan performed with confidence and relative ease.
·
Biden was aggressive and spirited, attacking
Ryan on nearly every point. He compensated for Obama’s drowsy turn and
attempted to paint image of Republicans as having disdain for regular
Americans and pursuing failed approaches. His tough demeanor veered at times toward
disrespectful and insolent. His tenor did little to
raise the level of attack in this election cycle, and he seemed more focused
on rousing dispirited Democratic insiders and Obama supporters than swing
voters. Perhaps the campaign calculated that their swing state infrastructure
will pay off on Election Day, and that this exercise would be best used to send
a message to reassure the base that “Obama is back fighting!”
·
Ryan was confident,
composed, measured even if Biden’s persistent pressure accentuated Ryan’s
youth at times. Despite reputation for “wonkishness,” Ryan stuck to sweeping
criticism of Obama across a variety of issues to draw a portrait of unkept
promises and disappointment, but also to avoid giving too many specifics of
Romney plan. Ryan did not take many risks, nor did he jeopardize the
momentum gained by Romney’s strong first debate.
