Election Day is almost here! The latest Capital Brief looks at the state of the race heading into the vote and poses just a few of the many questions for the aftermath of November 6.
Click below to read the Brief.
Election Day -1:
Closing Arguments in Neck-and-Neck Race
FACTS:
- Closing arguments: both candidates maintain
sharp attacks. Obama
touts his record and defends presidency as change agent for middle class
Americans. Romney
accuses Obama of not having done enough and making speeches rather
than results.
- Early vote: one of the keys to Obama’s
2008 victory, Republicans worked to stunt an Obama early vote momentum in
2012. The president maintains a slight lead among those having voted
early, but Romney has made up
enough ground to effectively neutralize Obama’s advantage. Example:
seniors (strongly pro-Romney) intend to vote early in greater numbers than
young people (Obama stronghold).
- Fluctuating polls: national polls show Obama
and Romney in a statistical tie, but the Electoral College trumps. To
date, Obama has more mathematical
paths to 270 electoral votes. Swing state polls are tight; Obama
maintains a narrow though stable lead in Ohio whereas Romney is up in
Virginia. Florida looks all but tied. Some
early indications predict an Obama victory with about 300 electoral votes,
but the reality is nobody can predict even at this stage exactly
how it will turn out.
- Most undecided
voters have chosen their candidate. The 3% who still declare themselves as
undecided are most likely to abstain from voting. The question now is, who can better turn out their base on
Election Day? Romney’s Republican coalition is reliable in voting
massively. Obama’s constituencies are generally more unreliable. Will Obama’s voter registration effort
give him edge on November 6?
- Other races critical: Senate likely to remain Democrat, and Congress Republican.
ANALYSIS:
- The economy
(stimulate growth, create jobs, reduce deficit) is still voters’ primary concern. Entitlement reform (Medicare, social security) may also factor.
- Social issues proved
weighty in
this election, too. Once the province of Republicans, Obama used them to
mobilize his key demographic groups (women, Hispanics, minorities, young
people) and contrast his vision from Romney’s. Think topics like abortion, immigration, gay marriage,
gay military service.
- After the
election -
What role in elections for money
and media (esp. Super PACs)? Democrats massively registered new
voters, esp. Hispanics – who
were ignored by Republicans. How
will Democrats ensure their continued mobilization after Nov 6? How will Republicans adapt strategy and message to Hispanics,
young people, and minorities that reject their program now? Will either party try to reach across
the demographic divide, or instead expect more voter-targeting
messaging?
- If Obama wins, how will he govern
with a divided Congress? What second
term priorities and what strategy to achieve them? Will he make more
of an effort to cull liberal base?
Will Republicans find it expedient to employ same systematic opposition to
Obama as they look to grab 2016 victory?
- If Romney wins, will he govern from the Center or the Far
Right? Will he be able to
mitigate the warring currents in his own party to establish clear
leadership? How closely would his agenda resemble his electoral promises? What roles for new GOP generation in
Romney administration, if not preparing for 2016 bid?
