A LOOK AT CHUCK HAGEL AND JOHN BRENNAN : OBAMA'S PENTAGON AND CIA NOMINEES

Chuck Hagel: Nominee, Secretary of Defense

Having Chuck Hagel (age: 66), an Obama confidante, at the head of the Pentagon is intended largely to provide political cover to end combat operations in Afghanistan and to begin to implement deep Pentagon budget cuts.

Hagel is chair of the Atlantic Council and member of Obama’s Intelligence Advisory Board. He was formerly a Republican senator from Nebraska (1997-2009) and head of an investment banking firm. A two-time Purple Heart recipient, he would be the first Vietnam veteran to serve as Secretary of Defense. Hagel is known – and disparaged by many Republicans – for his independence vis-à-vis party orthodoxy on foreign policy issues and for holding views considered to be views outside of the conservative mainstream (ex. opposition to Iraq troop surge). Indeed, the vivid battle over his nomination has already begun among prominent Republicans, neoconservatives, Democrats, and pro-Israeli groups.

Opposition to Hagel is tri-fold. He has encountered major criticism for past statements about the pro-Israel lobby”: “[It] intimidates a lot of people around here. I havealways argued against some of the dumb things they do because I don't thinkit's [...] smart for Israel.” He has refused to add his signature to letters circulated around DC by AIPAC. Although Hagel has considerably better relations with other arms of said lobby (J-Street, Israel Policy Forum), and the support of heavyweights like Zbigniew Brzezinski, Brent Scowcroft, and most former US ambassadors to Israel, hardliners believe he will antagonize Israel. And to the contrary of the president, Hagel opposes sanctions against Iran, favors negotiations with Hamas and Iran, and has criticized the largesse of America’s defense spending.

Democratic opposition to Hagel centers mainly around a negative remark made about a gay colleague a decade ago. He has since apologized for the comment and has publicly stated his support for openly gay military service.

That Hagel personally knows war and has shown no reserve in expressing his reluctance to go to war may well have an impact abroad (US approach to Iran, willingness to align with Israel’s policies) as well as “at home” (increased attention to returned soldiers).

It is thought that Democrats will ultimately support the President’s choice and that Republicans will find it difficult to confront the potential backlash of opposing a decorated Vietnam War hero. But if Hagel wins a bitter nomination fight, Republicans may consider him weak and show less flexibility in cutting a deal to prevent the sequester from taking effect in late February.

John Brennan: Nominee, Director of CIA

Current Deputy NSA for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism and close confidante of Obama, John Brennan (age: 57) is a career CIA agent who has been party to nearly every national security question issue in the Obama administration (including the raid on Bin Laden). Brennan was considered for the job of CIA director in 2008, but withdrew his name for consideration after facing accusations over past public support for “enhanced interrogation techniques” and sending prisoners to countries where torture might occur. Detractors insist that as a high-ranking official inBush’ CIA, Brennan condoned tactics like waterboarding that are considered torturous. In 2009, he condemned such practices.

A primary question elicited by this pick is whether the CIA will maintain, reinforce even, its current place at the heart of counter-terror operations, or if Brennan will usher it back to its traditional espionage capacities.

During his 25 years at the CIA, Brennan exercised a wide variety of functions, including the post of station chief in Saudi Arabia. Following his time in government, Brennan was head of a security consultancy, The Analysis Corporation, as well as chair of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance, and the director of the National Counterterrorism Center. Brennan speaks fluent Arabic.

Related Reading
Obama’s Nominations of Hagel and Brennan Signal Course Adjustments at Pentagon and CIA (WaPo)
Brennan Pick Revives Leaks Dispute (Politico)

Choice to Lead C.I.A. Faces a Changed Agency (NYT)

photo credits: Associated Press

HOW THE SEQUESTER WILL IMPACT THE DEFENSE SECTOR

As 2012 winds to a close, so too does the time remaining for Congressional leaders and the President to reach a bargain on the fiscal cliff.

One of the major concerns is the prospect of $500 billion in automatic cuts to defense spending set to go into effect as part of the sequestration.

After the jump is a batch of links detailing how the sequestration will likely impact the larger defense community (Pentagon-both civil and military, defense industry, and defense lobbyists).

OBAMA MAINTAINS FOREIGN POLICY ADVANTAGE, BUT ROMNEY ISN'T OUT YET (LE MONDE)

Over at Le Monde, I contributed an op-ed this morning with a rundown of last night's final debate between Obama and Romney, largely hailed by voters as a victory for the president.

In a debate remarkable in the virulence of the attacks leveraged, the scope of topics was surprisingly narrow, and most of the candidates' arguments were retread from various campaign speeches and events.

The big question of the night was leadership. The president accused his Republican rival of poor judgment, a man dangerously subscribing to the values and frameworks of a by-gone era. For his part, Romney condemned the president's weak global leadership, an "apology tour" that has seen the US' enemies empowered (Iran) and its allies cast aside (Israel). For all of their differences in world vision, Romney did agree with Obama on a number of issues (use of drones), in some cases making only minor distinctions (would have asked Mubarak to step down, but earlier). Perhaps a smart tactical move for a candidate hoping to pick up centrist and undecided voters...

Romney did not disqualify himself from the commander-in-chief test. The president was aggressive, and while supporters may celebrate the bite in his repeated attacks against Romney, it is unclear if voters will agree - or rather see it as unbecoming and evidence of a struggling candidate. Likewise, will voters sign on for Mitt Romney's calls for more defense spending and a more robust US presence in the world in a time of budgetary constraint and reduced ambition in American public opinion?

Foreign policy remains a secondary issue in the 2012 elections. Will Obama transform last night's performance into a second wind of electoral momentum? Or will Romney's cool showing be enough to convince voters to make a change?

Click here to read the full text (in French) via Le Monde

CAPITAL BRIEF - LOOKING AHEAD TO ROMNEY'S TOUR OF EUROPE, ISRAEL

Here is the seventh issue of Capital Brief, from July 24, analyzing Mitt Romney's (still vague) defense policy proposals and their consequences.

Click below to read the Brief.

CAPITAL BRIEF - ROMNEY ON DEFENSE POLICY

Here is the sixth issue of Capital Brief, from July 17, analyzing Mitt Romney's (still vague) defense policy proposals and their consequences.

Click below to read the Brief.

EARLY INSIGHT INTO A ROMNEY FOREIGN POLICY

As the US presidential elections move into the summer, we can already begin to trace broad lines of what a Mitt Romney foreign policy might look like.

Here are some initial impressions:

- Romney is not an ideologue, but has made space in his foreign policy/national security team for neoconservatives (including John Bolton, who many expect would be given an important position in a Romney administration). Romney also counts the advice of other prominent neoconservatives like Robert Kagan of the Foreign Policy Institute, for example.

- His worldview often invokes Cold War paradigms and Bush-era Manicheaism. He considers Russia to be a chief threat to the US (and reproaches the reset), warns of the challenges posed by China (without giving much attention to the opportunities), has suggested the possibility of military action against Iran, and advocates a global posture that ensures the domination and supremacy of US values and its model throughout the world. Romney regularly uses language hailing an "American century" and "American exceptionalism."

But we can wonder how much of this discourse is to accomodate the electoral context, and what touches on his core values.

- Romney talks about increasing defense spending (to 4% of GDP) and strengthening the American national security apparatus, without clearly specifying why or how to do so in the very restricted current budgetary climate.

- Mitt Romney is a hawk on Israel. The former governor of Massachusetts has, for decades, shared ties to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, though they are not said to be personally close. At different moments during the campaign, Romney has received personal briefings from Netanyahu, and Romney has adopted a tone that would show his intent to become closer to the Israeli leader. In addition to planning a foreign policy trip to Israel at the end of July, he has also promised to do "the exact opposite" of Obama in the Middle East, including renouncing the 1967 borders.

- On Syria, Romney has called to join together with international partners to support the opposition to Bashar al-Assad without going so far as to support the airstrikes called for by fellow Republican John McCain.

- If elected, Romney would be quickly confronted by limits imposed on him by both the American people and warring currents within his own party. Most Americans (and a majority of conservative voters) oppose new military endeavors. They are skeptical of any American-led armed entrepreneurship in world affairs, preferring policies that allow for nation-building at home. Any tendency Romney might have to be active in democracy-promotion or in engaging the US military on a new front would be met with fierce opposition from the public.

Within the Republican Party, too, there is an ongoing debate between several currents of international involvement, ranging from neoconservatism to neo-isolationism and something in-between. As diverse as the differences between Lindsey Graham and Rand Paul, or John McCain and Jon Huntsman. For the moment, no one current dominates Republican decision-making.

For further reading on Romney's foreign policy team:

Old Rivalries Dog Romney Foreign Policy Team, M. Hosenball (Reuters)

Some G.O.P. Foreign Policy Experts Tepid on Romney, R. Oppell (NYTimes)

Who Would Be Mitt Romney's Foreign Policy Team? H. Brown (Huffington Post)

PANETTA @ SHANGRI-LA DIALOGUE: EXPLAINING US' ASIA PIVOT

On June 2, US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta delivered a keynote address at the IISS's Shangri-La Dialogue in which he outlined in greater depth more specific elements concerning the US's shift toward Asia-Pacific, fleshing out the context, driving principles, and physical and material investments to which the US is committing over the next several years, beginning now.

The overall context is one of constraints - namely economic - and of course the need to adapt to the profound changes underway caused by the emergence of Asia Pacific as a major global pole. The official line is to accomplish more with less, and to act more effectively within a series of defined limits and fixed objectives.

Most of the speech, however, was spent elaborating the four underlying principles and going into details about what the policy consequences would be. 

What are the four basic principles outlined by Panetta?

More after the jump...

SPOTLIGHT ON...: NEW FRENCH ADMINISTRATION (FABIUS, LE DRIAN, MOSCOVICI)

The government of French President François Hollande, led by Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, took office yesterday, on May 17.  Among the 34 ministers in Hollande's cabinet (of which half are women), three people in particular are likely to be especially visible to international audiences. They are Foreign Affairs minister Laurent Fabius, Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici.

Potusphere takes a quick glimpse at these men and their careers so far.

LAURENT FABIUS: FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Fabius, 65 years old, is one of the few "elephants" (familiar term to describe top Socialist Party leaders) to find a place in the new French government. He was previously Minister of Finance (2000-2002), Industry and Research (1983-84), and Budget (1981-83). From 1984-1986, Fabius served as France's youngest prime minister (just 37 years old) under another Socialist president, François Mitterand. 

Laurent Fabius was also twice president of the National Assembly (equivalent of Speaker of the House) from 1997-2000 and 1988-1992, serving from 1995-97 as the president of the parliament's socialist group (leader of the opposition) when the Right won the majority.

In the 1980s, Fabius successfully campaigned for French sanctions against the South African apartheid regime, publicly pushed back against communist Poland, and decried Castro's Cuba. But Fabius is most known for his vocal opposition to the European Constitution Treaty in 2005, which ran contrary to the position France's and Europe's socialists, who lined up in support of the treaty. Fabius presided over other key moments in Europe - namely the passage to the euro and the creation of the major French energy conglomerate Areva. On assuming his foreign affairs post on May 17, Fabius said: "I am profoundly European, but we need a different Europe, one that is more oriented toward jobs."

In 2009, Fabius expressed his opposition to France's reintegration into NATO's integrated command.

Fabius was a rival of François Hollande within the Socialist party, ran against him in the Socialist presidential primary before supporting party secretary Martine Aubry's bid. Once Hollande was elected the party's candidate, Fabius lent his support and expertise to Hollande - traveling abroad on the candidate's behalf and mapping out the new president's first 100 days in office. Fabius was named foreign affairs minister not for his proximity to the candidate but rather for his experience, expertise, and gravitas. The nomination is also viewed by some as an effort by President Hollande to represent the different currents of his party within his administration.

JEAN-YVES LE DRIAN: DEFENSE

Le Drian, 64 years old, is a longtime friend of François Hollande and early supporter of his presidential campaign. He is from a modest family in Brittany, from a town (Lorient) with close historical ties to the French military. He first registered with the Socialist Party after hearing François Mitterand speak and entered politics at the local level in 1977 before being elected to the National Assembly just one year later at the age of 30. Le Drian spent much of his political career connected to Brittany (serving as mayor of his hometown, member of parliament representing that area). From 1991-92, Le Drian was the secrétaire d'Etat à la mer, a ministerial post overseeing, in part, coastal and sea affairs. Most recently, he was the president of the Brittany region (a job perhaps equivalent to a US governorship).

Once in 2007 and again in 2009, former president Nicolas Sarkozy proposed the helm of the defense ministry to Le Drian, who twice refused on the grounds that he did not want to serve in a government that was not Socialist. 

Since 2006, he animated a high-level monthly defense and security reflection group comprised of military officials, civil servants, industry representatives and former Socialist ministers of defense. 

During the 2012 presidential campaign, Le Drian was in charge of defense and security questions for François Hollande. It is believed that Le Drian's friendship with the head of the French army will be an advantage. 

Le Drian visited Washington once during the campaign, in March 2012.

PIERRE MOSCOVICI: FINANCE

Pierre Moscovici, now 54 years old, was the youngest person to be elected Socialist Party secretary (at just 33 years old in 1990). In 1992, he became Party treasurer.  Moscovici held other leadership roles within his party while becoming close to former prime minister Lionel Jospin. 

Moscovici was first elected to European Parliament in 1994, where he served until 1997 before becoming France's Minister of European Affairs (1997-2002). During his time as Minister, Moscovici helped to prepare France's EU presidency (beginning of 2001), helped to negotiate the European Constitution Treaty.  

In 2004, Moscovici was once again elected a member of European Parliament, where he served until 2007 and during which time he served as one of its vice presidents. In 2007, he returned to the French National Assembly. 

Considered to be a leading figure in the Socialist party's social-democrat current, Moscovici was an early supporter of François Hollande's presidential bid and served as Hollande's campaign director.

(Photo credits: Manche Libre; France Inter; AFP, respectively)